Nokea
on February 2 of each year, the United States observes the unusual holiday of Groundhog Day of hope that winter is over and spring is beginning. this tradition has been officially observed in the US since the 1800s and is believed to have developed from European folk traditions in which a bear, fox badger or even hedgehog would serve as the symbolic meteorologist, although other cultures and towns observe Groundhog Day ( or something similar) the town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania takes special pride in being home to the one true forecasting groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil. At the turn of the twentieth century, townspeople formed the Punxsutawney GroundHog Day. Over the years, these events have come to include a scavenger hunt, a talent show, and a ball.
Legend has it that on Groundhog Day official weather forecasting grounding awakens from hibernation and comes out of his burrow to look for his shadow. If he sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter are to come, and Punxsutawney Phill takes this as a sign that spring has arrived, and he remains above ground. of course, common sense tells us that February 2 is too early for spring to begin and that while humans might learn, they are unlikely to act on their instincts based on a schedule set by the Gregorian Calendar, nevertheless, a visit to Pennsylvania to see Punxsutawney Phil and all of the fun he inspires each year might just provide the touch of hope needed to reach the end of writer.
What source would be most useful in determining the reliability of Punxsutawney Phil's predictions over some years?
Correct Answer: B
Rationale: To evaluate the reliability of Punxsutawney Phil's predictions over time, the most effective source would be a record of weather patterns in the last decade. By analyzing actual weather data from the past years, one can objectively determine the accuracy and consistency of Phil's forecasts. This factual information would provide concrete evidence regarding whether Phil's predictions align with the subsequent weather outcomes. A historical survey of customs in Pennsylvania or a memoir from a club member would not offer empirical data to assess Phil's predictive abilities. An encyclopedia entry on mammals in the Northeast U.S. would not directly contribute to evaluating the reliability of Punxsutawney Phil's predictions. Therefore, examining a record of weather patterns in the last decade is the most relevant and reliable source for evaluating the forecasting track record of Punxsutawney Phil.