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How are Hypotheses Confirmed? Most scientists agree that while the scientific method is an invaluable methodological tool, it is not a failsafe method for arriving at object ruth. It is a debatable, for example, whether a hypothesis can actually be confirmed by experience. When a hypothesis is of the form "All x and y," it is commonly believed that a piece of evidence that is both x and y confirms the hypothesis. For example, for the hypothesis "All monkeys are hairy," a particular monkey that is hairy is thought to be a confirming piece of evidence for the hypothesis. A problem arises when one encounters evidence that disproves a hypothesis: while no scientist would argue that one piece of evidence proves a hypothesis, it is possible for one piece of evidence to disprove a hypothesis. To return to the monkey example, one hairless monkey out of one billion hairy monkeys disproves the hypothesis "All monkeys are hairy." Single pieces of evidence then, seem to affect to given hypothesis in radically different ways. For this reason, the confirmation of hypotheses is better described as probabilistic. Hypotheses that can only be proven or disproven based on evidence need to be based on probability because sample sets for such hypotheses are too large. Int eh monkey example, every single monkey in the history of monkeys would need to be examined before the hypothesis could be proven or disproven. By making confirmation a function of probability, one may make provisional or working conclusions the tallow for the possibility of given hypothesis being disconfirmed in the future. Int he monkey case, then, encountering a hairy monkey would slighting rise the probability that "all monkeys are hairy," while encountering a hairless monkey would slightly decrease the probability that "all monkeys are hairy." This method of confirming hypotheses is both counterintuitive and controversial, but it allows for evidence to equitably affect hypotheses and it does not require infinite sample sets for confirmation or disconfirmation.
Using the same reasoning as that in the passage, an automobile with eighteen wheels does what to the following hypothesis: 'All automobiles have only four wheels'?
Correct Answer: D
Rationale: An automobile with eighteen wheels contradicts the hypothesis that 'All automobiles have only four wheels.' This contradiction reduces the probability that the hypothesis is true. The hypothesis is not proven by the presence of an eighteen-wheel automobile, nor does it raise the probability of the hypothesis being true. Instead, it directly challenges the hypothesis, leading to a decrease in its probability of being correct.